Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas no longer predict a September rate cut by the ECB, citing a resilient economy and hopes of an EU-U.S. tariff deal. The ECB kept rates steady at 2% on Thursday after cutting them eight times since June 2024. Lagarde indicated a wait-and-see approach, with analysts suggesting rates will remain unchanged. HSBC believes the ECB is done cutting rates, while J.P. Morgan now expects a rate cut in October. Trade talks between the EU and U.S. may result in a 15% tariff on EU goods, following Trump’s threat of 30% tariffs in August. Brokerages like Morgan Stanley and UBS are uncertain about a September rate cut, with some suggesting a hold until December if data improves.

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