Apple (AAPL) Q3 Earnings Show Modest Growth
Apple is set to report fiscal Q3 2025 earnings after the close on Thursday, with analysts expecting modest growth driven by strong services performance and steady iPhone sales, while investor focus remains on gross margins, tariff impacts, and any updates on Apple’s AI strategy.
📊 Analyst Expectations (Consensus)
| Metric | Estimate Range | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $89.1B – $89.5B | +3.7% to +4% |
| EPS | $1.42 – $1.45 | +1% to +2% |
| Gross Margin | ~45% – 46.5% | Slight drop |
| iPhone Revenue | ~$40B – $45B | +1% to +3% |
| Services Revenue | $26.8B – $27.1B | +11% – 12% |
🔍 Analyst Commentary (Fact-Checked)
- Goldman Sachs: Expects Apple to beat with ~$89.5B revenue and $1.45 EPS. Positive view on margin expansion and services growth (~11% YoY).
- Morgan Stanley: Raised estimates to $90.7B in revenue and sees upside across iPhone, iPad, Mac, and services. Rates Apple “Overweight” with $235 PT.
- Bank of America: Slightly above consensus at ~$90.2B and $1.45 EPS. Notes regulatory risks but sees strong services tailwind.
- Needham: More cautious. Warns Apple lags in AI, with Siri upgrades still in early stages. Tariff impacts (~$900M) also flagged as a drag on margin.
- Consensus Outlook: Mostly positive but tempered by macro concerns (China, regulation, AI timing).
⚠️ Risks to Watch
- Tariffs: Expected ~$900M headwind from U.S.–China tariffs impacting gross margins.
- AI Narrative Lag: Compared to peers like Microsoft and Google, Apple’s AI strategy (Apple Intelligence, Siri) is perceived as trailing.
- China Sales: Competitive pressure from Huawei and slowing demand continue to weigh on iPhone outlook in Greater China.
- Regulatory: DOJ antitrust case and App Store policy scrutiny could threaten long-term services growth.
🧩 Key Themes
- Services Growth: Strong double-digit YoY growth expected; margin engine despite App Store risks.
- iPhone Mix: Higher ASP and strong U.S. promotions helped offset global softness.
- Gross Margins: May compress slightly, but not dramatically, as Apple manages supply chain and pricing.
- Investor Focus: All eyes on AI commentary—any new roadmap or Siri progress could act as a surprise upside.
📈 Market Setup
- Stock Performance: AAPL trading near $211; up modestly YTD.
- Implied Move: Options market pricing in ~3.5% post-earnings move.
- Valuation: ~29× forward P/E; expectations moderate, but not overly bearish.
📊 AAPL Technical Summary – July 29, 2025
Current Price: $211.27
Trend Status: Neutral-to-mildly bullish short term
🔹 Fibonacci Key Levels (from $260.10 high to $169.21 low):
- Support: $205.77 (38.2%), then $190.46 (23.6%)
- Resistance: $214.66 (50%), then $223.56 (61.8%) and $238.87 (76.4%)
🔹 Technical Indicators:
- 50-day MA: $205.44 → price is above (short-term bullish)
- 200-day MA: $221.92 → price is below (medium-term caution)
- RSI: 54.5 → Neutral (no overbought/oversold pressure)
- Volume: Near average → lack of strong conviction
🔹 Trend Analysis:
- Short-term: Mild bullish bias as price holds above 50-day MA
- Medium/Long-term: Needs to reclaim 200-day MA and 61.8% Fib to confirm recovery
- Watch closely: $214.66 resistance & $205.77 support
✅ Actionable Takeaways:
- Breakout above $214.66: Upside toward $223.56 and $238.87
- Breakdown below $205.77: Eyes shift to $190.46, then $169.21
- No clear momentum signal yet → wait for confirmed breakout or breakdown
📝 Final Takeaway
Analysts are cautiously optimistic. Apple is expected to post modest top-line growth (~4%) and flat to slightly higher EPS ($1.42–$1.45). Services remains the earnings anchor, while margin pressure from tariffs and slower AI execution loom as key risks. Some see potential upside if the company surprises on iPhone ASPs or provides clearer AI monetization plans.
📌 Disclaimer: This report is AI-generated and for informational purposes only.