The latest GDP release shows a rebound to 3% in Q2, exceeding consensus but still not on pre-Trump trajectory. Private domestic purchases as a proxy for economic momentum are decelerating, despite surprising on the upside. Alternative indicators like GDO and GDPPlus suggest continued growth in Q3, but the gap with the 2024H2 trend remains. Monthly indicators for June show flat real consumption and income, with manufacturing and trade industry sales trending downward. While a recession isn’t seen in June’s data, the economy is heading towards decelerating growth, possibly even zero growth on key indicators.

Read more at Investing.com: Behind the Headline GDP Beat: Core Growth Metrics Show Deceleration