Crude oil and gasoline prices rose to 5-week highs today, supported by signs of strength in the global economy. US and Eurozone Q2 GDP reports exceeded expectations, with the US GDP rising +3.0% and Eurozone GDP climbing +0.1% q/q and +1.4% y/y. This news is bullish for energy demand and crude prices.

President Trump’s threat to penalize India for Russian energy purchases increased crude prices. JPMorgan Chase warned of potential supply shocks if new sanctions are enforced on Russian energy exports. The European Union also approved sanctions on Russian oil, including cutting off more banks and blacklisting a major Indian oil refinery.

OPEC+ is considering pausing further production increases from October due to concerns about global oil demand slowing in the second half of the year. However, OPEC+ recently agreed to raise crude production by 548,000 bpd starting August 1, with additional increases likely. This move aims to reduce oil prices and penalize overproducing members like Kazakhstan and Iraq.

Iraq’s plan to resume oil exports from its Kurdish region could add to global oil supplies. The semi-autonomous Kurdish region expects to supply Iraq’s market with 230,000 bpd of crude once exports resume. Additionally, an increase in crude oil held on tankers is bearish for prices, with Vortexa reporting a +23% w/w rise in oil stored on stationary tankers.

The weekly EIA report revealed mixed data, with unexpected rises in crude and distillate stockpiles but a larger-than-expected draw in gasoline supplies. US crude oil inventories were below the seasonal 5-year average, while production rose to 13.314 million bpd. Baker Hughes reported a decrease in active US oil rigs to a new 3.75-year low of 415 rigs.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Crude Prices Supported by President Trump’s Threats to Sanction Russian Energy