The dollar index fell by -0.38% on Monday due to last Friday’s weak US payroll and ISM manufacturing reports, sparking speculation of a Fed rate cut next month. Questions about Fed credibility and strength in stocks also weighed on the dollar.

US June factory orders dropped -4.8% m/m, but orders excluding transportation rose +0.4% m/m. Federal funds futures prices indicate a 90% chance of a -25 bp rate cut in September and a 70% chance in October.

EUR/USD fell by -0.15% on Monday after Eurozone investor confidence unexpectedly declined. Factors like lower German bund yields and concerns over Trump’s tariff policies affecting Eurozone growth contributed to the euro’s weakness.

The Eurozone investor confidence index fell -8.2 to -3.7, below expectations. Swaps are pricing in a 15% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB in September.

USD/JPY fell by -0.31% on Monday, with the yen rallying to a 1-week high against the dollar due to safe-haven buying spurred by a drop in the Nikkei Stock index and lower T-note yields.

Gold and silver prices rose on Monday, with gold reaching a 1-week high. Precious metals gained support from dollar weakness, lower bond yields, and speculation of a Fed rate cut in September.

Precious metals also have safe-haven support due to concerns over Trump’s tariff policies and geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Dollar Falls with Bond Yields on Fed Rate Cut Speculation