When Will Oil Demand Peak? And Does it Matter?

From Morningstar:

According to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook, peak demand may happen before 2030, as early as 2028. The U.S. Energy Information Administration believes the peak could occur between 2030 and 2040.
Equity strategist Stephen Ellis supports the IEA’s projection, saying, “We don’t disagree with such a peak in demand.” BP projects peak oil demand to occur around 2030.
OPEC and other dissenting voices like Greg Taylor, chief investment officer of the Purpose Global Resource fund, argue against a demand peak before 2030, pointing to the increase in the middle class in some regions.
The EIA’s projections see India overtaking the U.S. by 2050 for total CO2 emissions, while Asia-Pacific nations will overtake Western Europe, holding second place behind India.
Whether the demand peak happens sooner or later, the world is on a trajectory where oil demand will peak. Both the IEA and the EIA see a future where oil consumption holds steady. BP’s projection is more aggressive, seeing demand in
2050 at 25% below the peak point, while the IEA projects a decline of only five percentage points below the peak of 2030.
The major variable in oil price evolution depends on a key development: the deployment of renewable energy sources, which depend heavily on subsidies.
The major variable in the equation is a straightforward deficit in oil supply. David Szybunka, senior portfolio manager of the Canoe Energy Portfolio Class fund, explains, “The attack on supply of oil is astronomical.”
The possible higher price of $187 that the IEA projects due to coming down from peak oil will probably be a curse for consumers… but a blessing for investors.



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