The construction market has seen fluctuations due to demand shocks and supply issues, with starts rising by about 100,000 units annually. The sustainable rate of construction is likely below 2 million units annually, but the shortage accumulated since 2008 complicates predictions. Forecasters were pessimistic in the past but have become more accurate recently, expecting starts to be flat since 2018. This trend impacts homebuilders as they navigate market frictions and aim to meet the demand for housing stock in a population with a certain income level.

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