Prices of aluminium premium contracts on Comex exchange have fallen due to speculation that U.S. tariffs on aluminium imports could be halved or Canada may get an exemption. The physical price premium for the August contract has risen to $1,543 a metric ton, up nearly 90% since the end of May.

U.S. buyers typically pay the London Metal Exchange benchmark plus the Midwest premium for aluminium. Traders and industry sources believe the premium on Comex for September onwards has dropped due to expectations of lower prices if President Trump reduces aluminium import taxes.

Midwest aluminium premium for September is trading around 67 cents a lb and 60 cents a lb for December. The U.S. imported over 3.9 million tons of aluminium last year, with more than 70% coming from Canada. Harbor Aluminum expects tariffs to remain in place for national security reasons.

Consultancy Harbor Aluminum does not foresee the U.S. reducing the 50% tariff or offering exemptions, as the government relies on the revenue from tariffs. They predict the Midwest premium to reach 78 cents a lb by the end of the year and 87 cents a lb in 2026.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Comex aluminium premiums beyond August dip on US tariff rollback bets