Archer Aviation (ACHR) disappointed investors with a wider-than-expected net loss of $206 million in their second-quarter earnings report. ACHR stock dropped over 4% in after-hours trading. The loss per share was 36 cents, missing the anticipated 25 cents. The company’s pre-revenue status added to market uncertainty.
Archer’s stock was highlighted in Barchart’s Unusual Stock Options Volume screener, with total options volume up 75% from the average. Call volume was significantly higher than put volume, indicating bullish sentiment. Institutional investors placed big block transactions, with bullish volume slightly edging out bearish volume.
Despite the uncertain market sentiment, retail traders may find ACHR stock intriguing. ACHRs stock price movements are analyzed through a unique framework inspired by Russian mathematician Andrey Markov. This approach differs from traditional Western forecasting, looking at past stock behavior to predict future pathways.
The ACHR stock risk assessment model shows a 3-7-D performance sequence over the past 10 weeks, indicating a potential upside. The null hypothesis suggests a 44.67% chance of a rise in stock price weekly, while the alternative hypothesis based on the 3-7-D pattern predicts a 68.42% chance of upward movement the following week.
A potential bullish strategy is to consider a 9.50/10.50 bull call spread expiring Sept. 12 for ACHR stock. This strategy involves buying a $9.50 call and selling a $10.50 call, with a maximum profit potential of $58. The trade has a breakeven price of $9.92, providing a margin of safety for traders.
The statistical analysis of the 3-7-D sequence shows a p-value of 0.0546, indicating a 5.46% chance of randomness in the pattern. While just above the traditional threshold for statistical significance, the market’s unpredictable nature and external factors make this signal worth considering for traders seeking opportunities in ACHR stock.
Read more at Yahoo Finance: Why Archer Aviation’s (ACHR) Post-Earnings Tailspin Looks Like a Favorably Mispriced Opportunity