Crude oil prices fell on Tuesday due to hopes of progress at the Trump-Putin summit concerning the Russia-Ukraine war and concerns about a global oil surplus. Bullish factors included a slightly lower dollar and Trump’s tariff postponement. The EIA forecasted a drop in US oil production in 2026, with support from Trump’s threats of tariffs on Russian energy buyers.

President Trump’s tariffs on Russian energy buyers could impact oil markets significantly. OPEC+ endorsed an increase in crude production for September. Concerns about a global oil supply glut persist as OPEC continues to gradually restore production, with the IEA warning of a surplus by Q4-2025. A decline in stored crude oil on tankers is bullish for oil prices.

The weekly EIA report showed US crude oil inventories below the seasonal average, with a slight decrease in production. Baker Hughes reported a modest increase in active US oil rigs. The number of rigs has fallen sharply in recent years. No securities mentioned in the article were held by Rich Asplund.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Crude Oil Falls as EIA Forecasts Larger Global Oil Surplus