Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is hesitant to lower interest rates due to mixed inflation data and tariff uncertainty. He wants more convincing data before the FOMC meeting in September. Reports show consumer prices in line with forecasts, but producer prices unexpectedly high, possibly due to tariffs slowly impacting inflation.
Economists are closely watching inflation data for signs of tariff impact. While recent reports didn’t show obvious impacts, many believe import duties imposed by Trump will affect data in the coming months. Goolsbee emphasizes the importance of economic outlook and data clarity, suggesting rate adjustments based on strong economy and inflation trends.
Market expects FOMC to lower benchmark rate in September, with additional cuts possible in October and December. CME Group’s FedWatch shows a 55% probability of another reduction in October and 43% chance of a third cut in December. Goolsbee stresses the importance of data clarity in making rate decisions.
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