July Retail Sales in Line With Expectations

Economic data released today shows mixed signals for the U.S. economy, with retail sales meeting expectations, import prices rising significantly, and manufacturing in New York State improving.

Key Points:

U.S. Retail Sales for July increased by 0.5%, matching forecasts but lower than the revised 0.9% in June. Excluding auto sales, growth was 0.3%, down from 0.8% in June.

Core Retail Sales, which influence personal consumption expenditures, also rose 0.5% in July, down from a revised 0.8% in June.

Import Prices for July surged to 0.4%, exceeding expectations of 0.0%. This follows a downward revision of June’s import prices to -0.1%.

Excluding fuel, import prices increased by 0.3%. Year-over-year, import prices have remained at -0.2% for three consecutive months.

Export Prices rose by only 0.1% in July, down from 0.5% in June. Year-over-year exports also declined to 2.2% from 2.6%.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index reported a value of 11.9, surpassing expectations and marking the second-highest month since November. This follows two consecutive months of positive growth after four months of decline.

The stock market remains stable, with the S&P 500 aiming for record closing highs. Upcoming economic data and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will be closely watched for insights on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Overall, while retail sales and manufacturing show positive signs, the trade imbalance raises concerns about the economic outlook.