From Dow Jones & Company:

Economists are predicting a soft patch for the U.S. economy with a possible recession in 2024. Politically, it will feel like a recession, regardless of technical definitions, says former Bush economist Glenn Hubbard. Janice Eberly of Northwestern University sees a good chance of avoiding a recession, but Dana Peterson of The Conference Board expects a “short and shallow” recession possibly lasting from April to September. Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley predicts a soft landing and expects the Fed to cut interest rates in June. Karen Drynan of Harvard says recession odds are at 30%, double the normal level, and expects the economy to be hit by supply shocks.

The 10-year Treasury note closed at its highest rate since December on Friday, indicating that interest rates may rise.

Economists at an American Economics Association conference predict a soft patch for the U.S. economy with a possible “recession” in 2024. However, former Bush economist Glenn Hubbard thinks it won’t be “anything that is other than mild.” Although other economists expect a short and shallow recession or even a soft landing, Dana Peterson of The Conference Board expects a “short and shallow” recession. Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley predicts a soft landing and expects the Fed to cut interest rates in June. Karen Drynan of Harvard says recession odds are at 30%, double the normal level. The 10-year Treasury note closed at its highest rate since December on Friday.



Read more: Whether it amounts to an actual recession is uncertain, but U.S. is headed for a soft patch, economists say