Oil prices fluctuated as investors weighed bearish supply outlook against signals of potential interest rate cut in September by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. West Texas Intermediate traded above $63 a barrel. While oil rose alongside risk assets after Powell’s dovish remarks, concerns of global supply glut and US tariffs continue to limit gains.

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro criticized India for buying Russian oil, threatening to double import levies on August 27. President Trump has threatened to raise import duties on Indian goods due to Russian crude purchases. Despite this, Indian oil refiners have resumed purchases, and Moscow expects flows to continue.

Progress toward a peace deal in Ukraine remains elusive as President Zelenskiy reports no contact with Russia for potential talks. Navarro’s comments highlight headline risks around Russian energy, but oil prices have remained stable in recent weeks. Market is expected to be oversupplied in the fourth quarter, leading to potential price weakening.

Morgan Stanley analysts anticipate an oil surplus in the coming quarters, with prices likely to weaken due to oversupply. Despite a well-anticipated surplus, analysts do not foresee a disorderly sell-off. The market continues to face challenges from geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, impacting oil prices globally.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Oil Swings as Possible Rate Cuts Vie With Bearish Supply Outlook