Eli Lilly reported that its oral GLP-1 drug candidate, orforglipron, generated 8.3% placebo-adjusted weight loss at 72 weeks in the Attain-2 study. This data, along with previous results from the Attain-1 study, gives Lilly the necessary information to file for approval this year. Shares rose nearly 5% while Novo Nordisk shares fell a similar amount.

While weight loss in Attain-2 was slightly lower than in Attain-1, it was expected as Attain-1 patients were not diabetic. Data from both studies show promising results compared to other weight loss treatments. Lilly is maintaining a fair value estimate of $650 for the company, factoring in peak sales for tirzepatide and orforglipron.

Novo’s oral semaglutide is expected to be a strong competitor in the obesity market, with approval anticipated before Lilly’s orforglipron. However, Lilly’s small molecule manufacturing process may allow for a more rapid global launch. Peak sales estimates for Novo’s oral semaglutide are around $10 billion.

Read more at Morningstar: Strong Orforglipron Data in Second Obesity Trial Support On-Schedule Regulatory Filings