El Salvador President Nayib Bukele drew attention to prediction markets as bets on the country’s Bitcoin holdings hitting $1 billion by year-end increase. Bukele tweeted about Kalshi’s prediction market, where odds of reaching the milestone rose from 20% to 38%. Rival platform Polymarket listed a similar bet at 43% for December 2025.

Kalshi’s prediction market on El Salvador’s $1 billion Bitcoin holdings has been active since mid-August. Bets on hitting the milestone before November 2025 were at 18%, rising to 38% after Bukele’s tweet. Polymarket introduced a similar market following Bukele’s post, with odds at 43% for December 2025.

While Kalshi and Polymarket capitalize on optimism around El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings, they did not create betting markets around a previous controversy. El Salvador’s central bank president and finance minister claimed the country stopped buying Bitcoin after signing a loan deal with the IMF in 2024. Despite official claims, Bukele’s office reported holdings at 6,282 Bitcoin ($709 million).

Former Polymarket and Kalshi executive Toni Gemayel announced a $15 million raise from investors like Coinbase Ventures for the prediction market platform Clearing Company. The news comes amid the growing momentum of prediction markets.

Read more at Cointelegraph: El Salvador’s $1B Bitcoin Holdings Bet Hits Polymarket