September's market outlook predicts declines despite strong performance

Market Outlook for September 2025

September is historically the weakest month for stocks, following a strong August where the S&P 500 reached a record high above 6,500 and the Dow Jones also set new peaks.

• The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq Composite typically experience declines in September, according to historical data.
• In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 achieved its first two-month winning streak since February 2025.
• The banking sector in Europe saw significant gains, with shares hitting their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis.
• Commerzbank shares are up over 100% year-to-date, leading the banking sector’s performance.
• Conversely, media stocks have dropped over 8%, with WPP suffering a 71% pre-tax profit decline and lowering its full-year outlook.

  Looking ahead, some analysts remain optimistic. Mark Haefele from UBS Global Wealth Management anticipates a continued equity bull market, supported by solid corporate earnings and lower interest rates. However, Gregory Daco from EY-Parthenon expresses caution, noting resilience in the U.S. economy but increasing pressure due to tariff impacts.

  A Barclays report predicts a slowdown in the latter half of 2025 but expects a rebound in economic growth for the U.S. and Europe in 2026.

  Key upcoming events include economic data releases and central bank policy decisions, which will be crucial for market movements as traders return from summer breaks.