Sugar prices rose slightly on Monday, with NY sugar hitting a 4.25-year low and London sugar reaching a 2.5-week low due to increased sugar production in Brazil. Unica reported a +16% y/y rise in Brazil’s sugar output in August. Covrig Analytics noted mills prioritizing sugar production over ethanol amid drier cane crops.

The International Sugar Organization forecasted a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, with global sugar production expected to rise by +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT. Conab reduced its Brazil 2025/26 production estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 MMT due to lower sugarcane yields. Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the season.

India’s potential increase in sugar exports due to a bumper crop from abundant monsoon rains could negatively impact sugar prices. India’s Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association seeks permission to export 2 MMT of sugar in 2025/26. India’s sugar production may rise +19% y/y to 35 MMT in 2025/26, following a decline in 2024/25.

Thailand’s sugar production rose +14% y/y in 2024/25 to 10.00 MMT, contributing to a bearish outlook on sugar prices. The USDA projected global 2025/26 sugar production to increase by +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT, with ending stocks expected to rise by +7.5% y/y. Brazil, India, and Thailand are key players in global sugar production.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Post Modest Gains as the Dollar Weakens