October WTI crude oil closed down -2.04%, and October RBOB gasoline closed down -1.43% on Thursday as concerns about a global oil supply glut weighed on prices. The IEA raised its 2026 global oil surplus estimate, while weak US job market data added pressure. Geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East also impacted prices.

The IEA’s increased 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.33 million bpd, citing OPEC+ plans to boost production, contributed to the decline in crude prices. Geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East, including conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, added further support to prices. OPEC+ agreed to raise production by 137,000 bpd starting in October.

Reduced Russian crude output due to Ukrainian attacks on refineries has tightened global oil supplies, supporting prices. Concerns over sanctions on Russian energy exports due to the war in Ukraine also contributed to price support. President Trump’s willingness to impose tariffs on top Russian crude importers added to market uncertainty.

Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut crude prices for Asian buyers by $1 per barrel signals weak demand, adding bearish pressure on prices. Increased crude oil stored on tankers further weighed on prices, with Vortexa reporting a rise in oil stored on stationary tankers. OPEC’s plan to boost output gradually is also negative for crude prices.

The EIA reported US crude oil inventories below the 5-year seasonal average, with gasoline and distillate inventories also showing declines. US crude oil production rose slightly, while the number of active oil rigs in the US increased. OPEC’s increased production capacity and rising crude production levels added to market concerns.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Crude Prices Retreat on Fears of a Global Supply Glut