Sugar prices surged as the Brazilian real hit a 15-month high, discouraging exports. Funds held a significant short position in NY sugar, potentially fueling a rally. Despite a recent drop, Brazil’s sugar output is up y/y. India plans to export 2 MMT of sugar, adding to a projected global sugar deficit.

Brazil’s sugar mills prioritize sugar production over ethanol, anticipating drier conditions. The International Sugar Organization predicts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, with increased production and consumption. India’s sugar production is expected to rise, contributing to a bearish outlook for sugar prices.

Thailand’s sugar production is on the rise, adding to global sugar surplus projections. The USDA forecasts record sugar production and ending stocks for the 2025/26 season. India and Thailand are expected to see significant increases in sugar production. Abundant monsoon rains in India could lead to a bumper sugar crop.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Strength in the Brazilian Real Lifts Sugar Prices