From Dow Jones & Company:

According to recent comments, Donald Trump hopes for a U.S. stock-market crash in 2024, a year after President Biden may take office. However, statistics show that the probability of a crash this year is below average, making a 2024 crash unlikely. A research study by Professor Robin Greenwood and his co-authors revealed the indicators of an elevated probability of a crash, such as performance over a two-year period, volatility, and IPO activity. The latest “State Street US Froth Forecasts” suggests low crash probabilities for all sectors this year. Though these forecasts do not guarantee a successful stock market year in 2024, they provide evidence that there are greater things to worry about this year than the possibility of a crash.



Read more: Why Donald Trump is unlikely to get his wish for a 2024 U.S. stock-market crash