Carnival Corporation (CCL) Earnings Preview: Analysts Expect Moderate Growth

Earnings Date: Monday, September 29, 2025 (Before Market Open)

Stock Price (Sep 26, 2025): $30.62

Market Cap: ~$33B

Consensus Estimates

Revenue: $8.1B (vs. $7.9B YoY, +2.5%)
EPS: $1.32 (vs. $1.27 YoY)

Analysts expect modest growth, supported by strong booking volumes and robust onboard spending, though rising costs remain a headwind. Street sentiment: Moderate Buy, with targets implying double-digit upside.

Financial Themes to Watch

Revenue Growth: ~$200M YoY increase, focus on ticket yields and onboard spending.
Margins & Costs: Pressure from fuel, labor, and insurance.
Bookings: Occupancy expected to remain high; outlook on 2026 bookings key.
Cash Flow & Debt: Carnival continues debt reduction; strong cash generation is central to valuation.

Cruise Industry Backdrop

Passenger Growth: ~38M global cruise passengers expected in 2025.
Demand: Strong intent to cruise again; Mediterranean & U.S. ports leading growth.
Innovation: LNG and hybrid-fuel ships gaining traction.
Risks: New tourism taxes, regulatory costs, and reputational risks.

Peer Comparison (FY25E)

Metric	CCL	RCL	NCLH
Revenue (FY25E)	$33.2B	$18.5B	$8.2B
EPS (FY25E)	$2.34	$13.05	$1.90
Q3 Revenue Consensus	$8.1B	$4.3B	$2.6B
Q3 EPS Consensus	$1.32	$4.85	$1.06
YoY Rev Growth (Q3)	+2.5%	+10%+	+5%
Operating Margin (FY25E)	12%	23%	14%
Debt/EBITDA	4.8x	3.5x	5.2x
Valuation (P/E FY25E)	13x	15x	12x

Carnival lags Royal Caribbean on margins but benefits from scale relative to Norwegian.

Scenarios for Monday

Beat: Revenue > $8.1B, EPS > $1.32, bookings strong, guidance raised → Stock likely rallies; re-rating possible.
In Line: Meets expectations, neutral guidance → Muted reaction.
Miss: Below consensus or weaker guidance → Stock may fall 10%+.

Technical Analysis (as of Sep 26, 2025)

Price Trend: $30.62, above 50-day SMA ($30.49) and 200-day SMA ($25.19) → Bullish.
RSI (14): 47.7 (Neutral, room to move).
Support Levels: $30.24 (immediate), $29.75 (key).
Resistance Levels: $30.75 (immediate), $31.36–32.00 (next).
Volume: 22.2M, above average (healthy participation).
Trading Insight: Breakout above $31.00–31.50 could target $32+ into earnings. Drop below $30 could test $29.

Bottom Line

Carnival enters earnings with bullish technical momentum, strong demand trends, and modest YoY growth expectations. The key swing factor will be guidance on 2026 bookings and margin improvement. A strong beat could push shares toward the $32+ range, while a miss risks a retreat back below $30 support.