From Nasdaq:

Polymarket gives Donald Trump a 98% chance to win the Republican Iowa Caucus on Jan. 15. Shares on this outcome pay a mere 2.14% return, implying a near certainty of Trump’s win, according to CNBC.

Over $1 million in turnover shows no shortage of traders wanting to pick up “easy money” or betting on a major upset. Prediction markets like Polymarket have been gaining traction, attracting significant trading volume.

Prediction markets are expected to thrive in the election season. Traders on social media appreciate quantified information. Nate Silver, former Editor-in-Chief of Fivethirtyeight, backs the usefulness of prediction markets, citing their accuracy compared to peer-reviewed scholarship.

While Trump’s win appears all but assured, traders are more interested in who will be the runner-up in the Iowa Caucus. Polymarket gives Nikky Haley a 64% chance of taking second place, while Ron DeSantis has a 32% chance. Trump’s margin of victory in Iowa is also attracting speculation, with traders giving him a 56% chance to win by a margin of 30 to 40 percentage points.

At this early stage of the race, Trump’s decision to swerve the debates appears to be paying off, as his lead remains strong ahead of the Republican Iowa Caucus.



Read more: Trump 98% To Win Iowa Caucus, Say Prediction Market Traders — But The Side Bets Are Even Juicier