From CNBC:

Five major international investment banks are predicting slower economic growth for China in 2024, with average real GDP expected to increase by 4.6%, down from the 5.2% growth in 2023. These predictions come after the official target of China’s growth for last year was set to around 5%, a figure in line with Premier Li Qiang’s statement at the World Economic Forum in Davos. China is expected to reveal this year’s target at an annual parliamentary meeting in early March. (Words: 73)

Regarding the forecasts, Goldman Sachs is expecting 4.8% economic growth, the highest forecast from the five investment banks. JPMorgan had the highest at 4.9%, while Morgan Stanley had the lowest at 4.2%. JPMorgan’s Chief China Economist and Head of Greater China Economic Research Haibin Zhu expressed concern over downside risks from the housing market correction, deflation pressure, and insufficient domestic demand. The analysts at JPM also suggested that despite rapid growth in new technology and other sectors, the economy will face continued pressure. (Words: 90)

While China’s economy has been weighed down by pandemic-related restrictions and a slump in the real estate market, it also did not rebound as quickly as expected in 2023. This led to a rare decision from Beijing to increase the official fiscal deficit in October. As a result, Goldman Sachs anticipates notable easing of macro policy by the central government in 2024 to prevent real GDP growth from decelerating. The International Monetary Fund has also raised its 2023 growth forecast for China to 5.4% and expects growth to slow in 2024 to 4.6%, citing ongoing weakness in the property market and subdued external demand. (Words: 94)

China has stated that it was not willing to resort to massive stimulus, with Premier Li emphasizing at Davos that the country “did not seek short-term growth while accumulating long-term risks.” Similarly, UBS anticipates China’s annual GDP growth to slow to around 3.5% in the years following 2025 due partly to the housing slump. Despite this, UBS analysts believe there is growth potential in China, especially in areas such as further urbanization, manufacturing, services, and renewable energy investment. Even at 3% to 4%, the pace of China’s growth remains faster than that of developed economies. (Words: 91)

The International Monetary Fund also forecasts U.S. real GDP to slow to 1.5% growth in 2024, down from 2.1% in 2023, with an update to its global predictions set to release on Jan. 30. (Words: 31)



Read more: China 2024 GDP forecasts by JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi, Morgan Stanley