President Trump’s promise of increased drilling and lower gas prices hasn’t fully materialized. US oil and gas sector production activity has decreased for two consecutive quarters, reflecting in falling oil prices. Industry participants report worsening conditions, with Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate futures down over 13.5% and 14.5%, respectively.

The Energy Information Administration forecasts a 1% decline in US oil production in 2026 as prices drop. Factors contributing to this include tariffs on drilling supplies and an expected rise in gasoline demand. OPEC’s production increases aim to take market share from the US, while China accumulates massive crude oil stockpiles.

Gasoline prices have decreased, with the EIA projecting an average of $3.10 per gallon in 2025 and $2.90 per gallon in 2026. The One Big Beautiful Bill aims to boost production by making more land available to oil and gas companies at lower prices. However, only 6% of industry survey respondents believe the policy will have a significant impact. Exxon Mobil sold $550 million worth of drilling equipment in the Bakken formation to a smaller regional company. Chevron is reducing its rig count from four to three in the same area. Natural gas prices are rising, while US production remains flat. Factory activity in Texas slowed in September, with decreased orders and rising raw material prices. The Energy Information Administration predicts Brent crude to average $59 per barrel in Q4 and $50 per barrel in early 2026.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Trump’s economic plans called for more oil drilling and lower gas prices. He’s only getting the latter.