From Nasdaq:

Christophe Barraud, the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities, forecasts the U.S. economy in 2024. He attributes the resilience of the economy to temporary factors and predicts a 2.5% increase in GDP by year-end, slightly surpassing the general consensus of 2.4%. However, he warns of several challenges ahead, including geopolitical tensions and a shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Barraud also notes that the Eurozone’s economic situation may differ from the U.S. and believes the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to fight inflation for a longer period than the U.S. This scenario could create an arbitrage opportunity for investors, potentially bolstering the euro against the USD.

Reflecting on the past year, Barraud expressed surprise at the U.S. economy’s resilience and predicts that consumer spending will continue to be robust, albeit with a slight slowdown. He also highlighted several challenges ahead, including reduced savings, the resumption of student loan payments, wage normalization, and stringent credit conditions. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are identified as the primary global economic threat.

Regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, Barraud anticipated a shift later in the year, with speculation that rate cuts are more probable in May. He also noted the possibility of a rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB), creating an arbitrage opportunity for investors.

Barraud’s latest economic insights highlight the dominance of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as the primary global economic threat. He also emphasized a potential shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, with a focus on inflation and potential currency arbitrage opportunities between the euro and the USD.



Read more: Economist Christophe Barraud Predicts Surprising US Economic Resilience In 2024