Sugar prices fell today after an early advance, with NY sugar down 2.08% and London sugar down 2.02%. Covrig Analytics projected a 4.1 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, causing prices to retreat from a 1.75-month high.

NY sugar initially rose on lower sugar content in Brazil’s crush, but higher output in Brazil led to a 15.7% y/y increase in September. However, cumulative 2025/26 output fell slightly. India may also see higher production due to strong monsoon rains, with a 19% y/y increase projected.

India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to ethanol production, potentially prompting surplus exports. Thailand is also expected to see a 5% y/y increase in sugar production. The International Sugar Organization forecasted a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for 2025/26, with production and consumption both rising.

Commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for 2025/26, while the USDA predicted a record 189.318 MMT global sugar production. Brazil’s production estimates were lowered, with 2024/25 falling due to drought. Global sugar ending stocks are expected to increase by 7.5% y/y.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Knocked Lower by Projections for a Global Sugar Surplus