On Tuesday, March NY world sugar #11 and December London ICE white sugar #5 closed lower, with NY down -1.07% and London down -1.38%. Sugar prices fell after Covrig Analytics projected a +4.1 MMT global sugar surplus for 2025/26. NY sugar hit a 1.75-month high before dropping due to lower sugar content in Brazil’s recent crop. Brazil’s sugar output rose by +15.7% y/y to 3.622 MT, while cumulative 2025-26 output fell -0.1% y/y. India’s monsoon rains may lead to a bumper sugar crop, with a cumulative rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal. India’s sugar production expected to rise +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT in 2025/26. The possibility of India diverting 4 MMT of sugar to ethanol may prompt increased sugar exports. Thailand’s sugar production is projected to rise by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT in 2025/26. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for 2025/26. Expectations for abundant sugar supplies are bearish for prices, with Czarnikow projecting a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus. Conab cut Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 44.5 MMT, down from 45.9 MMT. The USDA projects a global 2025/26 sugar production increase of +4.7% y/y to 189.318 MMT, with global ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y. Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production is predicted to rise +2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT. India’s 2025/26 sugar production expected to increase +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT. Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar production is forecasted to climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Fall Back as Covrig Forecasts a Global Sugar Glut