Sugar prices fell on March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) by -1.80% and London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) by -1.66%. London sugar hit a 2-week low due to Covrig Analytics projecting a global sugar surplus of +4.1 MMT for the 2025/26 season, contributing to the decline.

NY sugar peaked at a 1.75-month high on lower sugar content from Brazil’s sugar crush. Unica reported that Brazil’s sugar output in the first half of September rose by +15.7% y/y to 3.622 MT, leading to a -0.1% y/y decrease in cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output.

India’s expected bumper sugar crop from abundant monsoon rains and increased planted cane acreage may lead to a +19% y/y rise in sugar production to 34.9 MMT. This follows a -17.5% y/y decline in 2024/25 to 26.2 MMT, prompting potential sugar exports and ethanol production.

Thailand’s projected +5% y/y increase in the 2025/26 sugar crop to 10.5 MMT may contribute to a bearish outlook for sugar prices. In contrast, Brazil’s production estimate was cut by 3.1% to 44.5 MMT, while the International Sugar Organization forecasted a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season.

The USDA projected record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT for 2025/26, with rising human sugar consumption and ending stocks. Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to see production increases. The outlook for sugar prices remains influenced by production estimates and global demand.

Read more at Yahoo Finance.: Forecasts for a Global Sugar Surplus Undercut Prices