Sugar prices fell for a second day, with NY sugar closing down -2.04% and London sugar down -1.59% on Wednesday. The decline was driven by a global sugar surplus projection of +4.1 MMT for the 2025/26 season. Brazil’s higher sugar output contributed to the bearish outlook on prices.

India’s expected bumper sugar crop due to abundant monsoon rains is another factor weighing on sugar prices. The country’s 2025/26 sugar production is projected to increase by +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, following a significant decline in the previous year. Additionally, India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to ethanol production, potentially leading to increased exports.

Thailand’s sugar production is expected to rise by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT in the 2025/26 season, adding to the bearish sentiment on sugar prices. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit for the sixth consecutive year, with a deficit of -231,000 MT projected for 2025/26.

The USDA anticipates a record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT in the 2025/26 season, along with increased human sugar consumption. Ending stocks are forecasted to rise, with Brazil, India, and Thailand expected to see production growth. The outlook for sugar prices remains uncertain amidst these production forecasts.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Retreat on a Forecast for a Global Sugar Surplus