Baby Bust: Will Falling Global Birth Rates Drive Markets Lower?
From Nasdaq, Inc.:
Global birth rate data suggests that the number of people on the planet could be half of that which saw in the millennium by the end of this century, following a 4.5% global birth rate decline in 2023.
The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a decline in birth rates, as young people delay starting families due to economic and social reasons. Global economist James Pomeroy warns that the world’s population is on a path to start shrinking before 2040.
Falling birth rates will ease pressure on the earth’s resources, but will also lead to a decline in demand for damaging fossil fuels, resulting in a decrease in oil prices.
A declining birth rate poses challenging economic decisions for policymakers, as governments may need to raise taxes to support an aging population, while declining healthcare expenses may result in an increasing burden on citizens.
The financial services sector has seen significant growth, with the iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF up 23% since October, while the healthcare sector has also seen a 13.5% increase during the same period.
Artificial intelligence may benefit aging populations, with investments being made in AI software and semiconductors. Semiconductor stocks have seen notable growth, with companies like AMD, Applied Materials, and Broadcom increasing by up to 19% over the past week.
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