Sugar prices fell today, with NY sugar hitting a 3-week low and London sugar at a 4.25-year low due to pressure from higher output in Brazil. Unica reported a +15.7% y/y rise in Brazil’s sugar output and a 53.49% sugarcane crush for sugar in August. However, the cumulative 2025-26 output fell -0.1% y/y.

Global sugar supplies are expected to be robust, with BMI Group projecting a 10.5 MMT surplus and Covrig Analytics predicting a +4.1 MMT surplus for 2025/26. India may see higher sugar exports due to a forecasted bumper crop following strong monsoon rains and increased planted cane acreage.

India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, potentially leading to an increase in sugar exports. Thailand is also expected to see a +5% y/y rise in sugar production, adding to the bearish outlook for sugar prices globally.

NY sugar briefly rose to a 1.75-month high after reports of lower sugar content in Brazil’s sugarcane crush. The International Sugar Organization forecasted a global sugar deficit for 2025/26, with a -231,000 MT shortfall. Global sugar production is expected to rise by +3.3% y/y, while consumption will increase by +0.3% y/y.

The USDA projected record global sugar production for 2025/26, with an estimated 189.318 MMT and an increase in human sugar consumption to 177.921 MMT. Ending stocks are forecasted to climb to 41.188 MMT. Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to see production increases in the upcoming season.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Sink on Expectations of Robust Global Supplies