Sugar prices are down today, with NY sugar falling to a 3-week low and London sugar dropping to a 4.25-year low. Global sugar supplies are expected to be robust, with projections of a 2025/26 sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT by BMI Group and 4.1 MMT by Covrig Analytics.

Brazil’s sugar output is increasing, with a +15.7% y/y rise in Center-South sugar output reported in the first half of September. However, cumulative 2025-26 sugar output through mid-September fell slightly y/y to 30.388 MMT. India is also expected to see a surge in sugar production, with a +19% y/y increase projected for 2025/26.

India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to ethanol production in 2025/26, further increasing the potential surplus. Thailand is also set to increase its sugar production by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT in 2025/26. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season.

The USDA projects a record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT for 2025/26, with increases in production expected for Brazil, India, and Thailand. Global sugar ending stocks are also forecasted to rise. Rich Asplund does not hold positions in any mentioned securities.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Expectations of Abundant Global Supplies Weighs on Sugar Prices