United Airlines (UAL) Q3 2025 Beats Expectations
Earnings Release Date: October 15, 2025
Key Points
- Net income: $949 million; Adjusted net income: $909 million.
- Diluted EPS: $2.90; Adjusted diluted EPS: $2.78.
- Total operating revenue: $15.2 billion, up 2.6% year over year.
- Operating margin: 9.2% GAAP; Adjusted margin: 8.7%.
- Pre-tax income: $1.26 billion; Adjusted pre-tax margin: 8.0%.
- Operating cash flow: $1.2 billion; Free cash flow: –$153 million (after aircraft investments).
- Ending liquidity: $16.3 billion; Adjusted net debt: $19.0 billion; Net leverage: 2.1×.
- Fuel cost per gallon: $2.43, down 5% YoY.
Against Street Expectations:
- EPS: $2.78 (adjusted) vs. $2.75 est → slight beat.
- Revenue: $15.2B vs. $15.0B est → beat by ~1.3%.
- Stock closed: $98.19 (–$5.86, –5.63%) on Oct. 16, 2025.
Quarter Highlights
- Passenger revenue: $13.8 billion (+1.9% YoY).
- Cargo revenue: $475 million (+3% YoY).
- Loyalty revenue: up 9% YoY; premium cabin revenue: up 6%.
- Capacity (ASM): up 7.2%; load factor: 84.4%.
- CASM: down 2.8%; CASM-ex: down 0.9%.
- Fuel consumption: 1.05 billion gallons at an average price of $2.43/gal.
- Prepaid $1.5 billion of MileagePlus bonds, fully eliminating debt secured by MileagePlus assets.
- Carried 48 million customers during the quarter — a record for the company.
- Fleet: 1,486 aircraft (+7.6% YoY).
CEO Statement
“We’ve invested in customers at every price point — from seatback screens and extra legroom to our industry-leading app and upcoming Starlink Wi-Fi rollout,” said Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines.
“Our investments and focus on operational reliability have built tremendous brand loyalty, helping United outperform through economic volatility. We expect Q4 to deliver the highest revenue in our history as customer demand strengthens.”
Future Outlook & Guidance
- Q4 2025 Guidance:
- Adjusted diluted EPS: $3.00 – $3.50.
- Operating revenue: expected to rise 5–7% YoY.
- Capacity (ASM): up ~7% vs. Q4 2024.
- CASM-ex: projected flat to slightly higher YoY.
- Fuel price: estimated $2.45–$2.75 per gallon.
- Full-Year 2025:
- Adjusted EPS: $9.50 – $10.50.
- Adjusted pre-tax margin: 9–10%.
- Free cash flow: $2.5–$3.0 billion.
- Net leverage: expected to remain around 2×, maintaining investment-grade metrics.
Financial Summary
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Total Operating Revenue | $15.23 B | $14.84 B |
| Operating Income | $1.40 B | $1.57 B |
| Pre-tax Income | $1.26 B | $1.29 B |
| Net Income | $949 M | $965 M |
| Adjusted Net Income | $909 M | $1.11 B |
| Diluted EPS | $2.90 | $2.90 |
| Adjusted EPS | $2.78 | $3.33 |
| Operating Margin | 9.2% | 10.5% |
| Adjusted Operating Margin | 8.7% | 10.5% |
| CASM | 15.82¢ | 16.28¢ |
| CASM-ex | 12.15¢ | 12.26¢ |
| Average Fuel Price | $2.43 | $2.56 |
| Passenger Load Factor | 84.4% | 85.3% |
| Fleet Size | 1,486 | 1,381 |
| Available Liquidity | $16.3 B | $15.1 B |
| Adjusted Net Debt | $19.0 B | $20.8 B |
Capital Return
- Share repurchases: $19 million in Q3; $612 million year-to-date.
- No dividend declared; capital focused on fleet growth and debt reduction.
- Debt: $25.4 billion (–$3 billion YoY).
- Net leverage: 2.1× trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDAR.
About United Airlines
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UAL) operates one of the world’s most extensive global route networks, serving more than 400 destinations across six continents. With hubs in Chicago, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, Newark, San Francisco, and Washington D.C., United carried a record 48 million passengers in Q3 2025. Headquartered in Chicago, United employs over 110,000 people worldwide.
Key Takeaways
- Solid beat: EPS and revenue both exceeded Street estimates.
- Profitability maintained: Operating margin near 9%, adjusted pre-tax margin 8%.
- Record operations: 48M passengers and record completion rate.
- Balance sheet progress: MileagePlus debt eliminated; leverage at 2.1×.
- Guidance strong: Q4 EPS target $3.00–$3.50, implying record profitability.
- Overall: United delivered another resilient quarter with operational excellence, margin control, and strong Q4 momentum.