Asia Morning Briefing provides an overview of market moves and analysis, emphasizing the impact of central bank balance sheets and cross-border capital flows on risk. QCP Capital notes the significant influence of institutional portfolio hedging and predicts a steady Fed easing cycle favoring gold and digital assets.

Traders on Kalshi assign a 76% chance of three rate cuts in 2025, aligning with JP Morgan’s forecast. Bitcoin’s trading is influenced by the liquidity framework, with Kalshi traders seeing a 51% probability of reaching $130,000 this year. Market positioning suggests a slow-burn rally driven by easing expectations.

The market anticipates a gradual rally, not a speculative surge, as easing expectations filter into real yields and dollar liquidity. On-chain signals align with this view, indicating a liquidity-fed advance that may continue pushing assets higher. However, concerns linger over potential market volatility due to external factors like U.S.-China trade tensions.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: QCP Says Global Liquidity, Not Fed Cuts, Is Powering the Market