Sugar prices have fallen, with March NY world sugar #11 down -0.13% and December London ICE white sugar #5 down -1.10%. The drop is attributed to higher sugar output in Brazil, with a 1.3% y/y increase in production in the first half of October. Cumulative 2025-26 output rose 0.9% y/y to 36.016 MMT.

The global sugar surplus is pressuring prices, with projections of a record sugar production in Brazil and a global surplus. Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production is expected to jump 3.9% y/y to 44 MMT. BMI Group forecasts a global 2025/26 sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT, while Covrig Analytics projects 4.1 MMT.

India’s strong monsoon season may lead to a bumper sugar crop, with forecasts of a 19% y/y increase in sugar production to 34.9 MMT in 2025/26. India may export excess sugar, potentially surpassing earlier expectations. The country’s sugar surplus could prompt increased exports, impacting global prices.

Thailand’s sugar production is projected to rise by 5% y/y to 10.5 MMT in 2025/26. The country’s 2024/25 sugar production saw a 14% y/y increase to 10.00 MMT. This growth, along with other global factors, contributes to a bearish outlook on sugar prices due to potential oversupply.

The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits. Global sugar production is expected to rise by +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT, while consumption will increase by +0.3% y/y to 180.8 MMT.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Retreat on Higher Sugar Output in Brazil