Sugar prices dropped on Wednesday due to higher sugar output in India and Brazil. India raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, while Brazil’s estimate increased to 45 MMT. The surplus in sugar production is expected to lead to more sugar exports, further impacting prices negatively.

The increase in sugar production is mainly driven by favorable weather conditions in both India and Brazil. The surplus in sugar output is expected to continue, with projections for a global sugar surplus in 2025/26 by various organizations. This surplus is likely to keep sugar prices at low levels for the foreseeable future.

The outlook for sugar exports from India remains negative, with expectations of a bumper sugar crop due to abundant monsoon rains. This increase in production is set to contribute to the global sugar surplus and put further pressure on sugar prices. Additionally, India is projected to export more sugar than initially anticipated.

Thailand is also expected to see an increase in sugar production in the 2025/26 season. This rise in output from the world’s third-largest sugar producer and second-largest exporter is another bearish factor for sugar prices, as it adds to the global surplus and further impacts pricing trends.

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits. Despite this, global sugar production is expected to rise, leading to a slight deficit. The USDA also projects an increase in global sugar production and consumption, contributing to higher ending stocks.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Stronger Sugar Output in India Knocks Sugar Prices Lower