Novo Nordisk reported third-quarter revenue of DKK 75 billion, slightly below expectations, and diluted EPS of DKK 4.50, also below consensus. The company narrowed its full-year guidance towards the lower end of its prior range for sales and operating profit growth. Earnings were in line with low market expectations, but investors are focused on upcoming events that could impact Novo’s future prospects, such as US policy decisions and the Metsera bidding war.

An agreement between Novo, Lilly, and the US administration on direct-to-patient obesity drug pricing is expected on Nov. 6. This could involve lower starting dose prices for Medicare access and support against compounders. Medicare’s negotiated price for semaglutide, starting in 2027, will be announced later this month. Despite pricing pressure, Novo’s long-term potential in the market remains strong, and the company is expected to maintain its fair value estimates.

With only 10% of Wegovy sales coming from cash channels, Novo’s success will hinge on maximizing direct-to-patient sales with the launch of oral semaglutide in early 2026. As prices decrease, access to new technologies for lower doses will be crucial. Novo may need to compete to maintain a higher offer than Pfizer for Metsera, although Federal Trade Commission support is uncertain, and Metsera is not included in the model.

Read more at Morningstar: Novo Nordisk Earnings: US Policy and the Metsera Bid in Focus After Weak Third Quarter