Wall St Week Ahead-Scorching US economy throws off market’s Fed cut narrative
From Nasdaq:
1. Robust U.S. economic data has investors questioning whether strong growth will continue to drive stock markets higher. This comes amid fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite market anticipation of monetary policy easing.
2. The U.S. economy is so strong that rate cuts may risk an inflationary rebound. The surprisingly high growth, contrary to Fed expectations, caused a pivot away from anticipated rate cuts. After a strong employment report, markets are now reflecting only a 70% probability of a rate cut in May.
3. The strong growth in the U.S. economy is driving stocks higher. The S&P 500 index reached new record highs, buoyed by strong corporate earnings. S&P 500 earnings for 2024 are expected to soar nearly 10%, with tech and pharmaceutical sectors leading the gains.
4. However, fears of a potential inflationary spike are looming. Analysts are worried about the force of the U.S. economy continuing at such a rapid pace, and the long-term impact on inflation. Investors are on edge about the potential for interest rates to rise more sharply, which could weigh down equities.
5. Stock prices and yields could rise due to inflation fears. If U.S. growth stays above trend, inflation pressures may resurge. This, combined with high interest rates, could pile stress on specific sectors, such as commercial real estate, which is already struggling with the economy.
6. Investors are still pricing in Fed cuts, although the expectations have decreased. Despite a drop from earlier projections, market expectations for rate cuts this year are still higher than the levels the Fed has forecasted.
7. The U.S. economy is facing a surge in growth and the endurance of that growth is being challenged. Despite strong corporate earnings and market expectations, fears of inflation and higher interest rates could derail the growth potential going forward.
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