Five of India’s largest oil refiners have skipped buying Russian crude for December, turning to Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraq instead. Washington’s sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as EU sanctions, have influenced this decision. Meanwhile, the U.S. and India’s ongoing trade talks have added pressure to stop buying Russian energy.

The Indian pivot away from Russia has caused a spike in oil product prices, with ICE Brent-Gasoil crack spreads doubling to a 21-month high above $32/bbl. Despite this, Brent prices remain low, indicating bearish sentiment in oil markets as oil product markets tighten.

U.S. oil production growth exceeds expectations, with Big Oil companies ramping up production for increased profits. Exxon Mobil has increased hydrocarbons production to 4.7 million boe/d, while Chevron posted record global production of 4.09 million boe/d. The Energy Information Administration forecasts U.S. oil output to average 13.59 million bpd in 2026.

StanChart has turned bearish on oil prices, cutting its 2026 and 2027 outlook by $15/bbl due to changes in the futures curve. They predict low prices will eventually depress U.S. shale output growth. Rising U.S. shale production costs and the need to drill in more complex areas are driving this trend, with costs predicted to rise to $95 per barrel by the mid-2030s.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Diesel Spreads Hit Near Two-Year Peak After India Cuts Russian Crude Purchases