Crude oil and gasoline prices rose on Friday, with December WTI crude oil up 2.39% and December RBOB gasoline up 2.65%. Geopolitical tensions intensified as Ukraine launched attacks on Russian oil facilities, impacting global oil supplies. Iranian seizure of an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman added to Middle East risks, boosting crude prices.

Ukraine’s targeting of Russian refineries has disrupted fuel supply, reducing Russia’s refining capacity by up to 20%. New US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies have further constrained exports. OPEC revised global oil market estimates, projecting a surplus in Q3 due to increased US production and higher crude output.

Saudi Arabia’s reduction in crude prices to Asia signals bearish sentiment. China’s strong crude demand, with Jan-Oct imports up 3.1% y/y, supports prices. Reports of potential US military strikes on Venezuela, a major oil producer, have also influenced oil prices.

OPEC+ will raise production by 137,000 bpd in December but pause hikes in Q1-2026 due to an emerging global oil surplus. The IEA forecasts a record 4.0 million bpd surplus for 2026. OPEC aims to restore all 2.2 million bpd production cuts made in 2024. Crude oil stored on stationary tankers rose by 11% w/w.

US crude oil inventories are below the seasonal 5-year average, with production reaching a record high of 13.862 million bpd. Active US oil rigs rose by 3 to 417, slightly above the 4-year low set in August. The number of US oil rigs has declined significantly from a high of 627 in December 2022.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Crude Prices Climb on Geopolitical Risks from Russia and Iran