Price: $87.09
Trend: Bullish but in short-term consolidation
Gold: $4,034 (-0.99%)

1. Current Trend Overview

Above 50-day SMA ($84.50–$84.60) → trend support being tested
Well above 200-day SMA ($62.68) → long-term uptrend intact
Momentum neutral (RSI 52.56, W%R -44)
ADX 22 → trend softening but not broken
Volume low → normal consolidation, not distribution

2. Fibonacci Retracement

(Matches your 1-yr chart: bottom near $52 in Jan, peak near $98 in late Oct)

Fibonacci Levels

Level	Price	Why It Matters
0%	$98.58	52-week high / primary resistance
23.6%	$88.65	Current rejection zone (fits chart perfectly)
38.2%	$82.97	FIRST major support if 50-day breaks
50.0%	$75.29	Midpoint + August base
61.8%	$67.60	Deep pullback level
100%	$52.00	January low

Current Position vs. Fib

NEM at $87.09 is just below the 23.6% retracement ($88.65).
This aligns with your chart showing repeated failures at $88–$90.

If price reclaims the 23.6% level → upside momentum restarts.
If price loses $84.50 → the 38.2% retracement ($82.97) is next.

This Fibonacci structure is fully aligned with the printed charts.

3. Updated Support & Resistance

Resistance Levels

$88.65 (Fib 23.6%)
$92.50–$93.00 (swing highs)
$98.50–$100.00 (Fib 0% / 52-week high)

Support Levels

$84.50–$85.00 (50-day SMA)
$82.97 (Fib 38.2% — key support)
$78.00–$80.00 (prior base)
$62.68 (200-day SMA)

Critical takeaway:
$84.50 = MUST HOLD to keep trend intact
$82.97 = FIRST major Fibonacci support

4. Gold Correlation & Macro Overlay

Gold currently $4,034, pulling back from $4,200 resistance
Short-term consolidation, long-term trend bullish
As per uploaded gold report:
- Support: $3,925
- Resistance: $4,200
- Medium-term target: $4,400–$4,500
If gold drops → NEM follows
If gold reclaims $4,200 → NEM likely retests $92–$98 quickly

5. 7–30 Day Projection Model

Assumptions

Gold holds above $3,925
Equity markets remain stable
Gold volatility remains elevated but trending bullish medium-term

🟩 7-Day Outlook (Very Near-Term)

Base case (60% probability):
NEM trades between $84.50 and $89.00, respecting the 50-day SMA.

Momentum indicators neutral
Chart shows tightening consolidation
Volume contracting → suggests a coil

Upside scenario (25%):
Break above $88.65 (Fib 23.6%) → move toward $92.00–$93.00.

Downside scenario (15%):
Break below $84.50 → immediate drop to $82.97 (Fib 38.2%).

🟦 30-Day Outlook (Intermediate-Term)

Bullish case (55% probability)

Conditions:

Gold reclaims $4,150–$4,200
NEM holds $84.50
ADX rises above 25 confirming trend strength

Targets (over 30 days):

$92.50
$98.50 (52-week high)
Potential breakout >$100 if gold spikes to $4,250+

This aligns with medium-term gold projections in your file.

Neutral / Consolidation case (30% probability)

If gold stays rangebound $3,950–$4,100:

NEM trades sideways between $82.97–$89.00.

Patterns likely:

Bullish flag
Ascending channel
Cup-and-handle attempt

Bearish case (15% probability)

Triggered by gold breaking below $3,925:

Downside targets:

$82.97 (Fib 38.2%)
$78–$80
Extreme stress: retest of $75 (Fib 50%)

This scenario requires a broader gold correction.

6. Final Assessment

NEM remains structurally bullish
Currently sitting on trend-critical 50-day support
Fibonacci confirms $88.65 is the next upside trigger
Gold’s short-term weakness explains NEM’s current pullback
7–30 day bias = bullish with consolidation, unless gold breaks $3,925

Disclaimer: This report is generated with AI assistance and is for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.