Sugar prices today are mixed. March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) is down -0.07 (-0.47%), while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is up +2.10 (+0.50%). The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts a 1.625 million MT sugar surplus in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.

India’s food ministry considers raising ethanol prices for gasoline blending, leading to a potential shift in cane crushing towards ethanol production. Sugar prices hit 3-week highs due to tighter supplies from India. The country plans to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in 2025/26, lower than previous estimates.

Global sugar prices have suffered due to record output in Brazil and talk of a global surplus. Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production estimate was raised to 45 MMT, contributing to a bearish outlook. India, the second-largest producer, may increase sugar exports after raising its 2025/26 production estimate to 31 MMT.

Thailand’s sugar crop is expected to rise by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT in 2025/26, adding pressure to global sugar prices. The USDA projects a record 189.318 MMT of global sugar production in 2025/26, with Brazil and India leading the way. India’s projected 25% y/y increase in sugar production could further impact prices.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Undercut by the Outlook for a Global Surplus