From Nasdaq:

Crypto bettors on Polymarket have seen a surge, with former President Joe Biden’s chances of dropping out of the 2024 presidential race up by 50%. This rise in Biden’s chances was from 19% to 30% at the time of writing. The market rules specify that the withdrawal will resolve bets to “yes”. The interest in political prediction markets continues to rise.
Market participants have traded $350,000 on the question of Biden’s withdrawal compared to $43 million on the election winner market and $5.8 million on the Democratic nominee market. There is also trading interest in former First Lady Michelle Obama’s chances to be her party’s nominee, with odds rated at 10%.
The surging odds for Biden’s withdrawal follow a report on Special Counsel Robert Hur’s investigation into Biden’s handling of classified documents, which described the president’s memory as “severely limited”. Biden pushed back against the report’s findings in remarks at the White House, questioning the relevance of the report on his personal life.
Professional prediction market trader Villu Veedla discussed the “anti-Biden bias” that may have influenced the market’s reaction to the report. Veedla pointed out that markets were long searching for an alternative to what they perceive as an unexciting candidate and the report created the “perfect storm” for this narrative. Traders’ interest may shift toward the Republican primaries, where former President Donald Trump enjoys a commanding lead over his lone remaining rival, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.



Read more: Will Joe Biden Drop Out Of The Race? Crypto Bettors Just Sent Odds 50% Higher: ‘The Perfect Storm,’ Trader Tells Benzinga