The truckload spot market remained subdued in Q3, RXO expects a modest peak season to keep rates in check in Q4. Regulatory actions targeting non-compliant CDL holders may bring freight rate volatility next year. TL spot rates were up 1.8% y/y in Q3, contract rates up 2.1% y/y.

Q3 saw shippers enjoy high tender acceptance rates with minimal rate increases, while carriers faced cost pressures. Since 2023, rate datasets have been range-bound, failing to hold seasonal gains. Spot rates have rebounded but struggle to surpass contract rates, indicating a slow TL market upswing.

RXO anticipates tightening market conditions due to regulatory crackdowns on non-compliant CDL holders. Carrier attrition from unsustainable economics and low truck orders add to capacity challenges. A modest spike in demand may trigger rate volatility in 2026. The market is fragile, with the potential for significant shifts.

Looking ahead, RXO predicts potential structural changes in the carrier market, driven by capacity exits and CDL constraints. Eventually, spot rates may surpass contract rates, leading to volatility. Trade policy stability, driver exits, and customer responses will influence market dynamics. RXO is the third-largest TL broker in North America.

The TL market could see significant changes in 2026, as capacity exits and regulatory constraints intensify. Spot rates may surpass contract rates, driving volatility. Trade policy stability, driver exits, and consumer response will shape the market. RXO is the third-largest TL broker in North America following its acquisition of Coyote Logistics.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: RXO flags ‘fragile’ TL capacity makeup entering 2026