From Nasdaq:

On Sunday, Super Bowl LVIII will be played between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs at the Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. The 49ers could tie the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots for the most Super Bowl rings if they win. But the big question is: will the Super Bowl predict the stock market’s performance for the year? One firm seems to think so.

After analyzing historical trends, Bespoke Investment found that if the 49ers win, it has historically been better for the stock market. The market was higher for the remainder of the year 100% of the time, with an average gain of 20.2%. If the Chiefs win, the market has been higher 67% of the time with an average gain of 10.9%.

While the Super Bowl stock market indicator has been mostly positive, not every team’s victory has led to market gains. The New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders victories led to market declines between their Super Bowl wins and year-end. Bespoke also found that high-scoring blowouts have often led to strong market returns for the year.

The recent buoyancy in the stock market has come on the back of positive corporate earnings and expectations of the Fed reversing rate hikes. However, opinions on the market’s future differ, with some seeing continued momentum, supported by Fed rate cuts, and others expecting a hard landing due to the lagged impact of previous rate hikes. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ended Friday’s session up 0.58% at $501.20.

So, is the Super Bowl really a leading indicator for the stock market? The firm noted that the relationship could be coincidental, and with the S&P 500 Index closing above 5,000 for the first time ever, investors might want to proceed with caution.



Read more: Super Bowl As Stock Market Predictor? As 49ers Go Up Against Chiefs, Investment Firm Weighs On Potential Implication For Market