From Fortune:

1. Just a quarter of business economists and analysts expect the United States to fall into recession this year. A conflict involving China could be the cause, not domestic economic factors. Year-to-year inflation is expected to exceed 2.5% up to 2024, but growth has been resilient despite higher borrowing costs.

2. This is a change from 2021, when most forecasters predicted a recession as the Fed raised interest rates to combat inflation. Now, after a decrease from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.4% in December, hopes are raised that a “soft landing” is achievable with reduced inflation.

3. Business forecasters, seeing the Fed has stopped raising rates and plans to reduce them three times this year, still see a concern that the Fed’s policy is “too restrictive.” Worries about a potential conflict between China and Taiwan, political instability in the U.S., and U.S. government finances are growing.

4. Some 57% of respondents say budget policies need to be more disciplined going forward. 45% believe promoting medium to long-term growth is the most important objective, followed by reducing the federal deficit and debts (42%) and reducing income inequality (7%).



Read more: Only 25% of business economists say the U.S. will have a recession this year