TSM earning calls some key points
The 2024 outlook mentioned throughout the presentation includes various key points regarding financial performance, technology ramp-ups, and strategic directions for TSMC:
- First Quarter 2024 Guidance:
- Revenue expected to be between US$18 billion and US$18.8 billion, representing a 6.2% sequential decline at the midpoint.
- Gross margin is expected to be between 52% and 54%, with an operating margin between 40% and 42%.
- Profitability Factors for 2024:
- Utilization rate is expected to rise as the business recovers.
- Gross margin dilution of about 3 to 4 percentage points due to a higher revenue contribution from 3-nanometer technology.
- Conversion of some N3 capacity supported by N5 tools, aiming for higher capital efficiency, might dilute gross margin by about 1 to 2 percentage points in the second half of 2024.
- A long-term gross margin of 53% and higher is deemed achievable, excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations.
- Capital Expenditure (CapEx) and Depreciation:
- 2024 CapEx is expected to be between US$28 billion and US$32 billion, allocated mainly to advanced process technologies (70% to 80%), with the remainder for specialty technologies and other investments.
- Depreciation expense is expected to increase close to 30% year-over-year in 2024, mainly due to ramping up 3-nanometer technologies.
- Revenue and Industry Growth Expectations:
- TSMC forecasts a healthy growth year for 2024, supported by the ramp of 3-nanometer technologies, strong demand for 5-nanometer technologies, and robust AI-related demand.
- The overall semiconductor market, excluding memory, is expected to increase by more than 10% year-over-year.
- The foundry industry growth is forecast to be approximately 20%.
- TSMC expects to outperform the foundry industry growth, with full-year revenue expected to increase by low-to-mid 20% in U.S. dollar terms.
- Technology Ramp-up and Customer Engagement:
- Strong ramp of 3-nanometer technologies in the second half of 2023, with expectations of revenue from this technology to more than triple in 2024.
- N2 (2-nanometer) technology development is on track for volume production in 2025, with significant interest and engagement from AI innovators and customers across HPC and smartphone applications.
- Global Manufacturing Footprint:
- Expansion of global manufacturing footprint to include facilities in Japan, Arizona, Europe, and Taiwan, to support advanced and specialty technology capacities.
- Specialty Technology Strategies:
- Focus on differentiated specialty technology solutions at mature nodes to meet customer requirements and ensure profitability.