Based on Wed Nov 26 close $326.26 (Earnings Mon Dec 1, 2025 after close)
Trend: Long-term bullish / short-term weakening
Volatility Setup: Tight compression → large post-earnings move likely

1. Trend Overview

Long-Term Trend (Bullish)

Price is well above the 200-day SMA (~$246).
The multi-month trend from June to November remains intact.

Short-Term Trend (Weakening)

Price is sitting right on the 50-day SMA (~$310–315).
Lower highs through November signal easing momentum.
Volume is declining → buyers are not positioning aggressively into earnings.

Interpretation: MDB is in a healthy long-term trend but is losing short-term conviction ahead of earnings.

2. Key Technical Levels

Support

$315–310 → 50-day SMA & major demand zone
$300 → psychological + prior support
$280 → minor support
$246 → 200-day SMA (major downside target on a bad miss)

Resistance

$335–345 → recent local highs
$350 → overhead supply zone (November peak)

Compression Zone

$315–330 → tight range MDB is stuck in
Breakout or breakdown from this zone will drive post-earnings move.

3. Momentum Check (RSI + Price Action)

Daily RSI on StockCharts ≈ 42.5 (mid-zone → bearish drift).
Momentum has cooled, candles contracting, volume light.
Price is making lower highs, consistent with loss of momentum.

Pre-earnings takeaway: MDB is not oversold, not overbought — it is in a neutral-to-bearish drift, which statistically favors downside unless earnings surprise strongly.

4. Earnings Trigger Zones (Critical Levels)

Bullish Trigger (Breakout)

→ Above $335–345

Opens path to:

$350,
$360+ if strong guidance and volume spike.

Bearish Trigger (Breakdown)

→ Below $310

Leads to:

$300,
$280,
And possibly $260–246 (200-day) on a heavy miss.

No-Trade Zone (Before Earnings)

$315–330

Rangebound chop
No directional edge until the earnings release

5. Earnings Outcomes – Scenarios & Probabilities

Scenario	Probability	Description	Expected Move
Bearish Breakdown	50% (Most Likely)	Weak momentum + lower highs + sitting on 50-day	$310 → $300 → $280; panic wash toward $246 possible on large miss
Neutral / Range Reaction	30%	Mixed results, muted guide	Holds $315–330; choppy ±3–5%
Bullish Breakout	20%	Strong beat + guidance	$335–345 → $350 → $360+

Why Bearish is Higher Probability

Pre-earnings RSI in 40–45 zone (historically bearish drift)
Weak volume
Failure to retake 340
Lower highs pattern
Strong support at 310 — if broken, air pocket down to 300

6. Post-Earnings Trading Blueprint

Scenario A — Breakout Continuation (Bullish)

Trigger: Open > $335–345, holds above it
Trade Setup:

Go long on retest of $335–340
Stop: Below $330
Targets: $350, then $360–365

Scenario B — Spike & Full Fade (Bearish)

Trigger: Opens near $345–350, rejects hard
Trade Setup:

Short failed retest at $335
Stop: Above $345
Targets: $320, then $310

Scenario C — Breakdown (Bearish)

Trigger: Open under $310
Trade Setup:

Short under $310
Stop: $316
Targets: $300 → $280
Ultimate flush zone: $260–246

Scenario D — Capitulation Flush → Reversal (Bullish)

Trigger: Earnings gap down into $260–246 (200-day) with heavy volume and long wick
Trade Setup:

Go long on reclaim of $260
Stop: $246
Targets: $290–300

Scenario E — Inside Range (Neutral)

Trigger: Opens inside $315–330

Very low-edge zone
Avoid trading until a level breaks

7. Final Take

MDB is set up for a significant post-earnings move due to:

Tight compression
Declining volume
Weak short-term momentum
Key support ($310) and resistance ($335–345) levels converging

Bias:

Slight bearish lean unless MDB reclaims $335–340 before or immediately after earnings.

The $310 level is the entire ballgame — lose it, and MDB likely unwinds toward $300 and potentially $280–260.

This analysis is AI-assisted and for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making trading decisions.