Sugar prices closed mixed on Friday, with NY sugar reaching a 5-week high. Brazilian real strength supports prices, discouraging export sales. StoneX cut Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production estimate. India considers boosting ethanol price, diverting cane to ethanol production. India allows mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in 2025/26.

The International Sugar Organization forecasts a 1.625 MMT surplus in 2025-26 due to increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Global sugar production expected to rise by 3.2% y/y. Record sugar output in Brazil and India is bearish for prices. Outlook for robust global sugar supplies has hammered prices since early October.

Brazil’s sugar production estimate raised to 45 MMT for 2025/26. Sugar output in Brazil’s Center-South rises by +16.4% y/y. India forecasts larger sugar crop, cutting sugar used for ethanol production. India’s monsoon rainfall 8% above normal, projecting a bumper crop. Thailand expects a +5% y/y increase in sugar crop for 2025-26.

USDA projects global sugar production to reach a record 189.318 MMT in 2025/26. Human sugar consumption to increase by +1.4% y/y. Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production predicted to rise by 2.3% y/y. India’s production to increase by 25% y/y. Thailand’s sugar production to rise by +2% y/y.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Brazilian Real Strength Supports Sugar Prices